Signs of coming shift at SNL
Thursday, May 17th, 2012While some of the decrease has been caused by discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force, another driver is that the baby-boom generation is starting to move into retirement, according to economist Dean Maki. [1]
Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — U.S. President Barack Obama, Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer at Pacific Investment Management Co., and Dean Maki, chief economist at Barclays Capital, offer their views on today’s jobs data and the outlook for the U.S. labor market and Federal Reserve monetary policy. [2]
“Demographic forces are the single biggest factor pushing the participation rate down,” said Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York and a former economist at the Federal Reserve. [1]
While some of the decrease has been caused by discouraged workers dropping out of the labor force, another driver is that the baby-boom generation is starting to move into retirement, according to economist Dean Maki. [2]
At play is a decline in the share of the working-age population, known as the participation rate, meaning that the economy needs to create fewer jobs to bring down unemployment. [...] Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) — The drop in U.S. unemployment so far this year may be an early glimpse of what’s to come as the workforce ages. [1]
While hiring ‘will step up somewhat in 2012,’ Maki said, even the current pace is enough to cause a ‘persistent decline’ in unemployment over the long term. [2]
The jobless rate, which was 9.4 percent in December 2010, declined to 8.6 percent last month, according to Labor Department data issued Dec. 2. [...] The policy implications may be more pressing, as Fed officials keep interest rates near record low levels for longer than may be required given the likely drop in the jobless rate. [...] The report also showed payrolls have climbed by 132,000 a month on average in 2011, around the pace most economists say would keep the rate stable as the population grows. [1]
Sources:
[1] Drop in U.S. Joblessness Is Early Sign of Coming Shift: Economy …
[2] Drop in U.S. Jobless Rate Sign of Demographic Shift - Bloomberg